Yes, according to a new forecast from the Boyd Group, an industry consulting firm based in Evergreen, Colo. It’s another one of those cases where it will get worse before it gets better. But the drop won’t be nearly as precipitous; less than 2 percent.
The Boyd Group’s forecast is that the number of enplaned (departing) passengers at the airport this year will total about 1.75 million, then drop to about 1.73 million next year before it starts to rebound.
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Boyd’s forecast doesn’t see Tucson getting back 2008 levels — when there were 2.1 million enplaned passengers — until at least 2015.
It’s not a unique situation to Tucson, Boyd insists. Further, there’s not a lot Tucson can do about it he says.
“It’s not about the local economy or people in Tucson wearing out the carpet at the airport waiting for planes,” he said. “It’s about access to Tucson from the rest of the world and what strategies airlines are going to use to react to the economy and their own situations.”
Boyd says that a person coming from, say, Albany, N.Y., or most any other place in the world can get to Tucson today just as they’ve been able to to do in the past. And most likey they still can choose from as many or more options as ever before.
The man whose job it is to attract and keep air service at Tucson International says Boyd may be right.
Alex Kovach, director of air service development for the Tucson Airport Authority, says Tucson was spoiled by a “growth spurt” from 2007 to 2008.
“There was a period there where we were one of the 10 fastest growing airports in the country,” Kovach said.
Through a combination of negative economic issues that weren’t unique to Tucson, that came to a halt in 2008 when three airlines — JetBlue, ExpressJet and Aeroméxico — ended all service and five other non-stop destinations were dropped by the eight airlines still operating at the airport.
“The economy took its toll on every airport,” Kovach said.
Tucson has now returned to a slower growth path, he said.
Don’t expect a quick return of longer distance non-stop flights to places such as the New York area, Washington, D.C., or Charlotte, N.C., Kovach says. The economics don’t pencil out considering fuel costs and keeping a plane tied up for the longer amount of time it takes to fly those greater distances.
Instead, he said, the airport will remain focused on maintaining and improving service where demand has shown it can be supported.
Kovach also says all was not lost as a result of the airlines cuts. “We created awareness for a lot of customers who see this as an easy airport to use,” he said.
That is borne out by passengers who are filling planes to and from like they never have before and that plays an important role as airlines consider their route plans.
Both Boyd and Kovach say that Tucson could be in line for more rapid growth in airline service if the rocovery from the recession picks up steam faster than economists’ are forecasting.
And Kovach doesn’t rule out that there might be some service that could be added.
“I can still make the case for new service to certain places,” he said.
Airport brochures online
The Tucson Airport Authority has put its two latest brochures online. One highlights the cost advantages and other reasons to fly from Tucson International Airport and the other is an eight-page history of how air flight has affected Tucson, the airport authority and the development of both Tucson International Airport and Ryan Airfield.
Both brochures can be downloaded from the authority’s website — www.tucsonairport.org — click on “current news” then “brochures.”
Continental’s new alliance
A significant change for international business travelers takes effect Tuesday (Oct. 27) when Continental Airlines officially joins the Star Alliance whose partner airlines include United, US Airways, Air Canada, Air New Zealand, Lufthansa, Scandinavian, Singapore and Thai Airways. Up until Oct. 24, Continental had been part of SkyTeam that included Delta, Northwest and others.
The new alliance means the possibility that Tucsonans could connect to more flights across the Pacific using United and Continental through Los Angeles, San Francisco and Honolulu.
Contact David Hatfield at dhatfield@azbiz.com or (520) 295-4237. Inside Business Travel appears the fourth week of each month.
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